Retirement Insights

Workforce Exodus: A Ticking Time Bomb

By Karen Gilgoff

From 1946 to 1964, the United States celebrated the births of nearly 40 million Americans, a generation so huge that its needs and interests have dominated every decade for the last half century. Befitting the biggest population explosion ever seen, the generation was dubbed the "baby boom."

The boom has long posed a major challenge for American institutions and our national will. In the 1950s through 1970s, for example, the nation had to double spending on public schools. That investment paid off in the 1990s, as boomers entered their highest earning years and began looking down the road to retirement. Their earnings and purchasing and savings patterns helped fuel the largest economic expansion in our history.

As the boomers age, new challenges are appearing on the horizon. The generation’s vanguard is now over 50, and nearly all of the boomers will be eligible to retire within the next 30 years. By 2030, they will double the size of the senior population to 73 million; at that point, 20 percent of all Americans will be over 65.

The generations just behind the baby boom are much smaller. Today there are five people aged 20 to 64 for one over 65; by 2030, there will be slightly less than three to one.

No one really knows exactly how this demographic shift will affect the workplaces of tomorrow. But if there aren’t enough new workers to replace those retiring, employers will have to find ways to cope. The same is true for unions: In the years ahead, they stand to lose millions of members who leave their jobs for retirement.

AFSCME will experience its own exodus. The average age of our members, according to the most recent membership surveys, is 48. So AFSCME green is gradually growing gray, right along with the rest of the workforce:

• By 2005, 37 percent of all workers will be 45 or over.
• In the last 15 years, union members aged 25-34 declined from 30 percent of membership to 20 percent.
• At the same time, union members age 45 to 54 increased from 20 percent to 30 percent.

We have our work cut out for us. If AFSCME and the rest of the labor movement are to remain strong at the job site and in the political arena, we will need to find innovative ways to organize new members and build strong retiree organizations that enable our members to be life-long unionists.

Currently, there are 3.5 million retired members of unions. Yet:

• Less than a third of them maintain a relationship with their union.
• Every year, another 250,000 union members retire.
• By 2010, the number of retiring union members will exceed 500,000 a year.
• Within the next decade, the total number of retired members will be 5,000,000.

AFSCME, of course, is way ahead of the game in terms of retiree organizing. The union started its retiree program in 1980 and immediately instituted a strong organizing agenda. On average, we’ve added more than 10,000 members every year. Today, AFSCME counts over 200,000 dues-paying members in 35 retiree chapters and 250 subchapters across the country.

The strength of the AFSCME Retiree Program will give our union a head start when the baby boomers begin leaving the workforce. Unfortunately, only a handful of other unions have similar programs. Many more will need to make retiree organizing a priority.

The boomers’ arrival at retirement age will certainly present an enormous national challenge. For labor, the challenge could be one of our greatest — in the same league as industrial globalization and the privatization of public jobs.

For more information about the AFSCME Retiree Program, write to us at 1625 L Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5687.