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Baby Boomers
The looming shortage of nurses comes at the worst possible time, directly colliding with the aging of the baby boom generation and the accompanying rise in demand for nursing care. Between 2000 and 2020, millions of baby boomers will retire, become eligible for Medicare, and need greater medical care. The table below shows the huge growth in the elderly population projected for the coming decades. To care for this population, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Bureau of Health Professions estimates that the health care industry will need to hire an additional 5.3 million workers between 2000 and 2010 — a growth rate more than double that of non-health care employment.54
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U.S. Census Bureau Projection of Population55
(in millions) |
| |
Age 65 and Over |
Age 85 and Over |
| 2000 |
34.8 |
4.3 |
| 2010 |
39.7 |
5.8 |
| 2020 |
53.7 |
6.8 |
| 2030 |
70.3 |
8.9 |
| 2040 |
77.2 |
14.3 |
| Source: Populations Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. |
As Vanderbilt Nursing School Dean Peter Buerhaus notes, if the system remains unchanged over the next 15 years, "very large RN shortages will develop throughout all sectors of the nurse labor market. The size of the shortage could become so large that the health care system will be crippled and access to and the quality of care will deteriorate substantially."56 If the system remains more or less as is, a significant gap between the number of RNs needed by the national population and current projections forecasts a dramatic shortage beginning in 2010 and growing at least through the year 2020. According to widely accepted projections, by the year 2020 there will be a 20 percent gap between supply and demand of RNs, representing a shortfall of 300,000 to 400,000 RNs.57
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